Well, it looks like the UK’s unemployment total has fallen. Scotland has followed, reporting its own drop in unemployment. No doubt the yes campaign will sleep smugly tonight knowing it outperformed the UK as a whole. Of course, it is hard to predict how the economy will affect the referendum. Will people be more likely to vote yes if the economy is doing well and independence seems like less of a risk, or will people decide that they knew which side their bread is buttered and stick with the union.

It may not matter. Nestled in these stories is the fact that unemployment may reach the point where the Bank of England will raise interest rates. This could have disastrous consequences for the UK. This is the second highly pessimistic analysis of the UK I have read recently.

I think, for the undecided camp, this is the framework we will be analysing the referendum in. The UK has major political and economic flaws. The question is whether they can be fixed, even though there are doubtless forces and parties that don’t want them fixed, or whether Scotland is better dealing with them alone. Of course, some may suspect that the time has passed when they could be fixed.


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